By VIVIENNE JANNATPOUR
Colorado Daily Staff
February 16, 2004
Lester Brown, founder and president of the Earth Policy Institute and founder of the Worldwatch Institute, said we may see the beginning of a world-wide grain shortage within the next year or two.
"An urgent reordering of priorities and a restructuring of the global economy" is needed to avert consequences that will be disruptive, harmful, and long-term for millions of people around the globe, he said.
Brown will be speaking Tuesday at the University of Colorado at Boulder in UMC 235 at 7 p.m. His most recent book, Plan B: Rescuing a Planet under Stress and a Civilization in Trouble, will provide the basis for his talk.
"He's a wonderful speaker, he paints his pictures with words," said Heidi VanGenderen, Senior Associate with the Wirth Chair, a co-sponsor of the event.
"He's one of the most studied and thoughtful individuals in the environmental arena, and I've always had deep respect for his work," she added.
Brown said the first signs of grain shortage will come from China, which is now producing less grain than it needs to meet its consumption rates.
"China has developed a huge grain deficit over the last few years, and I doubt they can reverse that. I don't think they've got another year's left, that's why I think this will happen so soon," he said.
When China depletes its reserves, Brown said, they will need to turn to the world market for supplemental grain, and increasing food prices will be the first indicator of falling supply as China becomes a competitor with the U.S. for its grain.
"China could need 40 or 50 million tons," he said. "We're looking at 1.3 billion Chinese consumers competing with us for our grain, driving up our food prices."
One of the main reasons for this shortage, Brown said, is the increasing consumption of water by an increasing population. "The important relationship between population and food is becoming the issue of population and water. Most simply because you need water to make food," he said.
More than three billion people live in countries where water tables are falling, including China, India and the United States, he added.
The increase of international grain imports reflects the scarcity of water in many countries. "As many countries push up against the limits of their water supplies and as demand for water for cities and industry continues to grow, they pull irrigation water from agriculture, and they import grain to offset that," he said.
In addition to water scarcity, farmers must now also worry about rising temperatures due to climate change. "An increase of one degree Celsius could cut grain harvest by ten percent," he said, which could further contribute to increasing food costs.
This however, could be the catalyst for action about climate change. "If there's even a chance that rising temperatures are causing rising prices, people will want to do something about it," he said.
And action is what Brown is looking for. "We need to do something about it, not just by individual behavior, but by becoming politically active. We've got to change the system," he said.
Brown is calling for a reduction of 50 percent of carbon dioxide emissions by 2015. A fuel efficiency standard is one of the most efficient ways to do this, he said.
"If we cut our fuel efficiency to that of last year's Prius - this year's is even more efficient - gasoline consumption would fall by half, with no fewer cars on the road," he added.
Finally, Brown is adamant that we need a market that "tells the truth," by including social costs in the price of a gallon of gas, for example. This means restructuring the tax system by lowering income taxes and raising taxes on environmentally destructive activities to incorporate the ecological costs, he said.
"Unless we can get the market to send signals that reflect reality, we will continue making faulty decisions as consumers," he added.
Brown founded the Worldwatch Institute in 1974 and launched the State of the World reports in 1984. In 2001, Brown founded the Earth Policy Institute in Washington, D.C., where he now lives. He is a MacArthur Fellow and author of over 20 books and has received numerous honorary degrees and awards.
Brown's lecture is sponsored by the Wirth Chair, the School of Architecture and Planning, The Natural Resources Law Center and the Environmental Center at the University of Colorado. The event is free and open to the public.